The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
The UK’s banking sector is preparing for a significant uptick in residential development financing, driven by the new Labour government’s ambitious plans to tackle the nation’s housing shortage. Following Labour's landslide victory in July, the government has made homebuilding a central part of its economic growth strategy, prompting developers to boost the supply of homes and increasing demand for lending in this sector.
Key Takeaways:
Increased Certainty and Planning Reforms: The Labour government’s long-term stability, with at least five years in power, has provided much-needed certainty for developers and lenders alike. The party’s commitment to reforming the planning system, including making it easier to build on the green belt and reinstating mandatory local housing targets, has been welcomed by housebuilders. This is expected to unlock more development opportunities, particularly with the recruitment of 300 new planning officers aimed at expediting the approval process.
Lenders Poised to Capitalize on Demand: Several prominent residential development finance lenders anticipate a surge in borrowing as Labour's planning policies take effect. OakNorth Bank Plc, for instance, has already completed significant transactions in the residential sector since Labour's election win, including a £50 million loan for a mixed-use scheme in London. With institutional investors showing strong interest in build-to-rent and student housing, lenders are increasingly confident in the development financing market, viewing residential projects as safer, less cyclical investments.
Challenges and Gradual Growth: Despite the optimistic outlook, some industry experts caution that the recovery in development financing may be slow and steady rather than immediate. Factors such as high interest rates, build-cost inflation, and the time required to implement Labour’s proposed legislation could temper the pace of growth. Nonetheless, the sector is expected to see incremental improvements as reforms take hold, with banks like Shawbrook Bank Ltd adjusting their focus to align with the anticipated increase in demand.
In summary, while the Labour government’s housebuilding agenda offers promising opportunities for the UK’s lending market, the road to a full recovery in development financing is likely to be gradual, shaped by ongoing economic conditions and the implementation of key policy reforms.
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