The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Inflation in Tokyo accelerated in August, strengthening the argument for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to continue its gradual interest rate hikes while balancing support for the economy. Consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose by 2.4% compared to 2.2% in July, exceeding the consensus estimate of 2.2%, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. These Tokyo figures are considered leading indicators for national inflation data expected in September.
Key Takeaways:
Potential for Further Rate Hikes: Following the BOJ’s rate hike on July 31, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled openness to additional hikes if inflation trends align with the bank's projections. However, Ueda has also expressed caution, indicating that the BOJ will carefully assess the impact of financial market instability before making further policy moves.
Mixed Economic Indicators: Additional data showed a mixed economic picture, with Japan's jobless rate increasing to 2.7% and factory output rising by 2.8% in July, though it missed the consensus forecast of 3.5%. Retail sales growth slowed to 2.6% year-on-year, barely outpacing inflation. These factors suggest a slow recovery of the real economy, making an immediate rate hike unlikely.
Inflation Drivers and Economic Outlook: Rising energy prices have contributed significantly to inflation, with electricity prices surging by 24.2% in August. While there is hope that higher wages driven by tight labor market conditions could make households more resilient, economists believe a strong economic recovery justifying an early rate hike is unlikely. Most expect the BOJ to hold steady on rates at its next meeting on September 20, with the possibility of a rate hike delayed until early next year.
Overall, the latest data supports a cautious approach by the BOJ, balancing the need to address inflation while ensuring economic stability. The upcoming leadership race within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and possible policy shifts could also influence the economic landscape in the coming months.
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