The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd is poised to achieve record profit for the financial year ending March 31, 2025 (FY2025), driven by steady growth in loans and non-interest income. The bank's performance in the first quarter ended June 30, 2024 (1QFY2025), accounted for about 24% of the consensus full-year forecast of over RM730 million.
Key Takeaways:
Strong Growth Across Business Segments: Alliance Bank has demonstrated robust growth across its various business segments. Analysts, including TA Securities, have upgraded their outlook for the bank, citing positive indicators such as lower market risk premiums, a healthier economic environment in Malaysia, stable interest rates, and improved investor sentiment. TA Securities raised its target price (TP) for Alliance Bank to RM5, upgrading its recommendation to 'buy.'
Positive Market Sentiment and Share Performance: Alliance Bank's shares have risen 28% year-to-date, reflecting a broader rally among banking stocks in Malaysia, buoyed by increased foreign inflows amid the country's improving economic growth outlook. A majority of analysts remain bullish, with 10 'buy' ratings, four 'hold' ratings, and no 'sell' calls. The consensus 12-month TP is now RM4.72, suggesting a potential gain of 9.51% from the current share price.
Mitigating Challenges and Maintaining Margins: While CIMB Securities cautioned that loan growth might taper as Alliance Bank aims to maintain margins, lower fixed deposit rates amid easing competition and cost-optimization initiatives are expected to help sustain margins. RHB Investment Bank noted that any potential squeeze in the net interest margin could be mitigated by increased non-interest income from treasury and markets.
Alliance Bank is targeting a return on equity (ROE) above 10%, loan growth of 8% to 10%, and a net interest margin of 2.40% to 2.45% for FY2025. The bank's current performance and favorable economic conditions suggest it is well-positioned to meet these targets.
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