The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
China's Commerce Ministry held discussions with automakers and industry associations on Friday to explore the possibility of raising import tariffs on large-engined gasoline vehicles. This move comes as the European Union (EU) approaches a crucial vote in October on whether to impose additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), a decision that could escalate trade tensions between the two economic giants.
Key Takeaways:
Potential Tariff Increase on Large-Engined Vehicles: The Chinese government is considering raising import tariffs on large-displacement gasoline vehicles, signaling a possible retaliatory measure against the EU's proposed duties on Chinese EVs. This move would particularly impact Germany, which exported $1.2 billion worth of such vehicles to China in 2023.
EU's Proposed Tariffs on Chinese EVs: The EU is set to vote on whether to impose additional duties of up to 36.3% on Chinese electric vehicles, on top of the existing 10% import tariff. While the EU recently lowered the proposed tariff rate from 37.6%, it has not abandoned the idea, much to China's discontent.
China's Retaliatory Actions: In response to the EU's potential tariffs, China has already expanded its trade investigations into European products. This includes adding anti-subsidy probes on various dairy goods to existing anti-dumping checks on pork and brandy. The possibility of increased tariffs on large gasoline vehicles could be another lever in China's broader strategy to counter the EU's actions.
Impact on EU Member States: The EU's decision on EV tariffs is contentious, with different member states holding divergent views. While countries like France, Italy, and Spain support the tariffs, Germany, Finland, and Sweden have shown reluctance, abstaining from a July advisory vote. China's efforts to canvass member states aim to block the tariffs by securing a "qualified majority" of 15 EU members representing 65% of the EU population.
As the EU vote on Chinese EV tariffs draws near, the potential for escalating trade tensions between China and the EU looms large. China's discussions about raising tariffs on large gasoline vehicles signal that it is prepared to retaliate if the EU proceeds with its proposed measures, setting the stage for a complex and high-stakes trade negotiation.
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