Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
US Jobless Claims and Business Activity Signal Gradual Economic Cooling, Setting Stage for Fed Rate Cuts
Recent data on U.S. jobless claims and business activity suggest that the economy is gradually cooling, which could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates next month. Despite an uptick in unemployment claims, the labor market remains relatively stable, and business activity continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. This environment appears to support the Fed's cautious approach to monetary easing.
Key Takeaways:
Gradual Labor Market Cooling: The number of new unemployment claims rose slightly to 232,000 for the week ending August 17, a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market. This slight increase follows a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which saw the unemployment rate rise to 4.3%. However, the steadying of claims suggests that while the labor market is softening, it is not deteriorating rapidly.
Business Activity Slows, but Remains Strong: The S&P Global US Composite PMI, which tracks both manufacturing and services, edged down to 54.1 in August, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. Businesses report that while customers are becoming more price-sensitive, economic activity remains solid. This supports projections of robust GDP growth in the third quarter, likely exceeding 2% annualized.
Fed's Path to Rate Cuts: With inflation showing signs of normalization and the economy on a gradual cooling path, Fed officials are expected to focus on the labor market as they consider rate cuts. A 25 basis-point reduction at the September 17-18 meeting is widely anticipated, with discussions ongoing about the potential for further cuts. The Fed's cautious approach aims to ensure inflationary pressures are fully under control while avoiding unnecessary harm to the labor market.
Housing Market Rebound: U.S. existing home sales rose 1.3% in July, reversing four months of declines, as lower mortgage rates and improved supply conditions provided a boost. The increase in home sales, along with a rise in inventory, suggests a potential rebound in housing activity in the coming months, which could further support economic stability.
Overall, the data reflects an economy that is gradually cooling but remains resilient, providing a supportive environment for the Federal Reserve to begin easing interest rates in a measured manner.
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