Asian shares edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The US dollar, meanwhile, was pinned to one-year lows against the euro and sterling following the release of Fed minutes that signaled policymakers were ready to begin reducing rates.
Key Takeaways:
Market Reactions to Fed Minutes: The Fed minutes indicated that a "vast majority" of policymakers were inclined to support a rate cut in September, provided economic data aligned with expectations. This news led to gains in US stocks, a rally in bonds, and a weakening of the dollar. Asian markets followed suit, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index rising 0.2%, Japan's Nikkei up 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 0.7%.
Currency Movements: The euro rose to $1.1151, reaching as high as $1.1173 overnight, its strongest level since mid-2023, while sterling hit a more than one-year high at $1.3119. The dollar’s decline was driven by the Fed's clear signal of upcoming rate cuts, with expectations now set for a potential trading range of $1.10 to $1.15 for the euro in the coming weeks.
Interest Rate Futures and Treasury Yields: The futures market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in the US next month, with a one-third chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut. Additionally, over 200 basis points of cuts are expected by July 2025. Despite this, US Treasury yields remained relatively steady, with the 10-year yield at 3.81% and the two-year yield at 3.94%.
Commodities and Economic Outlook: Brent crude futures have declined nearly 6% in August, trading at $76.04 per barrel, as concerns over rising US crude inventories and a weakening demand outlook in China weigh on the market. Gold prices, supported by the weak dollar, stayed above $2,500 an ounce. Meanwhile, Australia's Whitehaven Coal saw its shares jump 8% following the sale of a $1 billion stake in its Blackwater mine.
South Korea's Central Bank and Economic Indicators: South Korea’s central bank kept interest rates on hold, as expected, while downgrading its growth and inflation forecasts, signaling potential future rate cuts. Japan's PMI data indicated slight contraction in manufacturing activity but growth in services, adding to the mixed economic signals across the region.
In summary, the anticipation of US interest rate cuts has lifted Asian shares and pressured the dollar to new lows. While markets are optimistic about a potential "soft landing," there remains caution, particularly with weaker commodity prices and mixed economic data from key regions.
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