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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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US Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low in July

Contracts to purchase previously owned homes in the US fell sharply in July, reaching their lowest level since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) began tracking the data in 2001. The Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on signed contracts, dropped 5.5% to 70.2 in July, far below economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase. On a year-on-year basis, pending home sales plummeted by 8.5%.

Key Factors:

  1. Impact of High Prices and Borrowing Costs: The significant decline in pending home sales reflects the challenges of affordability, with higher home prices and increased borrowing costs deterring potential buyers from the market.

  2. Broad Regional Decline: The drop in pending home sales occurred across all four major US regions, indicating a nationwide trend of reduced buying activity.

  3. Subdued Sales Outlook: With elevated house prices and economic uncertainty, particularly ahead of the US presidential election, the sales activity is expected to remain low. The share of consumers planning to purchase a home over the next six months fell to its lowest since early 2013, according to a recent Conference Board survey.

Overall, the housing market faces headwinds from affordability issues and cautious consumer sentiment, suggesting that sales activity will remain muted in the near term.

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