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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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UBS Cuts China's Growth Forecast as 5% Target Faces Rising Doubt

China's ambitious 5% growth target for 2024 is increasingly seen as unattainable by economists, with UBS Group AG among the latest to lower its forecast. The Swiss bank now predicts a 4.6% GDP growth for the year, down from its previous estimate of 4.9%, citing slow consumer spending and a lack of significant stimulus from the government. The real estate downturn and tight fiscal policies are major factors weighing down economic momentum, leading to growing skepticism among global banks regarding China's ability to meet its growth goal.

Key Takeaways:

  1. UBS Lowers Growth Forecast: UBS has revised China's GDP growth forecast for 2024 down to 4.6%, reflecting concerns over weak consumer spending and the government's reluctance to implement major stimulus measures.

  2. Real Estate Drag: China's ongoing real estate slump is significantly impacting domestic demand and overall economic confidence, leading to widespread downgrades in growth expectations from major financial institutions.

  3. Policy Challenges: Despite Beijing's efforts to revive the economy, including easing measures in the property market, the results have been limited. Analysts are increasingly doubtful that the government's 5% growth target is achievable, with calls for more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies.

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