Qualcomm projected higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand for high-end Android devices and AI-enhanced smartphones. However, the chipmaker warned of a revenue hit due to the US revoking an export license for Huawei, impacting shares.
Key Points:
- Revenue Forecast: Qualcomm predicts fourth-quarter revenue with a midpoint of US$9.9 billion, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of US$9.71 billion.
- AI Enhancements: The integration of AI features in smartphones has boosted demand for Qualcomm's chips, aiding revenue recovery after a prolonged industry slump.
- Impact of Trade Curbs: The US revocation of an export license for Huawei will affect current quarter and first-quarter 2025 revenues. Qualcomm is negotiating with Huawei but does not expect chip revenue from the company beyond 2024.
- Stock Movement: Qualcomm shares initially rose over 5% in extended trading but later fell by more than 1% after the trade curbs warning. Arm Holdings also saw a 13% drop in extended trading due to a cautious revenue forecast.
- Segment Performance:
- Chip Sales: Forecast midpoint of US$8.4 billion for the fourth quarter, slightly above estimates of US$8.33 billion.
- Patent-Licensing Segment: Forecast midpoint of US$1.45 billion, above estimates of US$1.37 billion.
- Mobile Handsets: Third-quarter revenue grew 12% to US$5.9 billion.
- Automotive: Revenue surged 87% to US$811 million.
- Internet-of-Things: Revenue fell 8% to US$1.36 billion.
- Market Dynamics: Analysts, including Kinngai Chan from Summit Insights, noted that Qualcomm's market share in premium-tier smartphones is helping its outlook, with Apple's and ARM-based PCs contributing to growth.
- Diversification: Qualcomm's entry into the automotive market is an effort to reduce reliance on smartphones.
Analyst Insights:
- Kinngai Chan, Summit Insights: "We believe Apple and ARM-based PCs are driving Qualcomm's handset outlook. The premium tier smartphone market, which Qualcomm has more market share in, is faring better than the mainstream segment."
Future Prospects:
- Apple's Growth: Analysts expect Apple to report revenue growth for its fiscal third quarter, which could benefit Qualcomm.
- PC Market: Qualcomm's Arm-based processors in Microsoft's AI PCs could challenge Intel and AMD, potentially boosting Qualcomm's position in the personal computer market.
Qualcomm's optimistic forecast reflects strong demand for its AI-enhanced chips, but the ongoing trade tensions with China pose a significant challenge to its revenue growth.

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