The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker-than-expected data from the first half of the year and a softer outlook for China's oil demand.
Key Highlights:
Demand Growth Cut: OPEC now expects global oil demand to rise by 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from its previous forecast of 2.25 million bpd.
China’s Impact: The reduction in the forecast is largely attributed to lower expectations for China’s oil demand growth, alongside actual data from the first and second quarters of 2024.
First Forecast Reduction: This marks the first time OPEC has cut its 2024 demand growth forecast since it was initially made in July 2023.
Industry Discrepancies: Despite the revision, OPEC's forecast remains at the higher end of industry estimates, with significant differences among forecasters regarding the impact of China's demand and the global shift towards cleaner fuels.
Future Projections Lowered: OPEC also trimmed its 2024 demand growth estimate to 1.78 million bpd, down from 1.85 million bpd.
OPEC+ Output Cuts: OPEC+—which includes OPEC members and allies like Russia—has been implementing output cuts since late 2022 to stabilize the market. The group recently extended a 2.2 million bpd cut until the end of September, with plans to phase it out gradually starting in October.
Comparative Forecasts: The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents industrialized countries, projects significantly lower demand growth of just 970,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA is expected to update its figures later this week.
Following the report, oil prices remained steady, trading above $80 per barrel, as the market digests OPEC's revised outlook and ongoing supply management efforts.

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