The US trade deficit in goods narrowed in June amid a broad rebound in exports, but it likely remained a drag on economic growth in the second quarter.
Key Points:
Trade Deficit:
- The goods trade gap contracted by 2.5% to US$96.8 billion (RM452.4 billion), according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.
Exports and Imports:
- Goods exports increased by 2.5% to US$172.3 billion, led by a 4.9% surge in food shipments and a 3.6% rise in capital goods exports. Industrial supplies, motor vehicles, and parts exports also saw strong increases.
- Imports of goods rose by 0.7% to US$269.2 billion. Consumer goods imports shot up by 3.3%, and capital goods imports advanced by 2.6%. However, imports of industrial supplies, food, and motor vehicles fell.
Economic Impact:
- Despite the narrowing trade deficit, economists estimate that trade subtracted as much as 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth in the second quarter.
- The impact of the trade gap on GDP is expected to be offset by a rise in inventories at wholesalers and retailers. Wholesale inventories increased by 0.2% in June, while retail inventories climbed by 0.7%, driven by a 1.8% gain in stocks at motor vehicle and parts dealers.
GDP Growth:
- According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate in the April-June quarter.
- Business inventories are estimated to have added roughly 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth last quarter after subtracting from growth for two straight quarters.
Conclusion: The US trade deficit in goods narrowed in June due to a rebound in exports, but it remained a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The impact on GDP is expected to be mitigated by increased inventories at wholesalers and retailers. Economists predict a GDP growth rate of 2.0% for the April-June quarter, with inventory investment contributing positively to the overall growth.

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