The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Cross-border investment volumes in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise by over 33% in the second half of 2024, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts that favor commercial real estate investments. Australia is set to lead this surge, with a projected 129% increase during the period, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
For the entire year, Australia is expected to attract 36% of total cross-border flows, making it the top destination. In the second quarter of 2024 alone, Australia received US$1.9 billion in international capital, a 2.5-fold increase from the first quarter of 2024, said Neil Brookes, Knight Frank Malaysia’s global head of capital markets.
"The office sector was the main driver, accounting for 63% of total transactions. A standout transaction was Mitsui Fudosan’s acquisition of a 66% stake in 55 Pitt Street for US$879.4 million," Brookes noted.
Transaction volumes are forecasted to reach 30% in the office sector, with Australia and Japan nearly doubling their 2023 levels. The industrial sector is anticipated to rebound but stay below its five-year average, while India is on track for its second-best year, following 2021.
The living sector is projected to exceed its five-year average, with Australia poised for its best year on record.
Japan is set to attract 23% of cross-border investment flows in 2024, driven by its favorable long-term prospects, while Singapore’s real estate market remains attractive, with cross-border investments making up 48% of total real estate investment volume in the first half of 2024, exceeding the 10-year average of 43% and reflecting strong global interest.
Christine Li, Knight Frank’s head of Asia-Pacific research, highlighted the impact of aggressive interest rate hikes that started in the second half of 2022. "With yields not expanding fast enough, and assets still being repriced, investors have exercised caution, focusing on opportunities within their national boundaries, rather than pursuing ventures in foreign markets," she said.
Key Takeaways:
- Asia-Pacific cross-border investment volumes to rise by over 33% in 2H2024.
- Australia leads with a projected 129% increase in investment volumes.
- Australia expected to attract 36% of total cross-border flows for the year.
- Office sector is the main driver, with notable transactions like Mitsui Fudosan’s acquisition.
- Japan and Singapore also showing strong cross-border investment interest.
- Investors have been cautious due to aggressive interest rate hikes since 2H2022.
Comments
Post a Comment