Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
US consumer confidence improved in July as optimism about the economy and labor market outweighed concerns about current conditions.
The Conference Board’s gauge increased to 100.3 from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June, exceeding the median estimate of 99.7 from a Bloomberg survey of economists. The expectations measure for the next six months climbed to 78.2, the highest since January, with more consumers expecting better business conditions.
Key Takeaways:
- Increased Confidence: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 in July from 97.8 in June.
- Future Optimism: Expectations for the next six months reached 78.2, the highest since January.
- Current Conditions: The gauge of present conditions fell to the lowest in over three years.
- Subdued Confidence: Despite the increase, confidence remains below pre-pandemic levels due to high living costs, elevated borrowing costs, and subdued pay growth.
- Labor Market Views: While optimism about future labor market conditions improved, views on current conditions worsened. The share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” fell to 34.1%, the lowest since March 2021, while more said jobs are “hard to get.”
- Labor Differential: The difference between those finding jobs plentiful and those finding jobs hard to get dropped to a more than three-year low.
- Buying Plans: Plans for purchasing new vehicles increased, while intentions to buy major appliances fell. Homebuying plans dropped to the lowest level in over 11 years, affected by high mortgage rates and prices.
Inflation Expectations and Labor Market Data:
- Inflation expectations remained steady, with recent data showing US inflation rose at a tame pace in June.
- Separate figures indicated June job openings exceeded expectations.
- A key government report due on Friday is expected to show employers added 175,000 jobs in July, indicating a slower but healthy pace of job growth.
Comments from Dana Peterson: “Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates.”
Overall, while the consumer confidence index showed improvement, the persistence of high costs and interest rates continues to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending, especially among lower-income individuals.
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