The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
US job openings fell modestly in June, with data for the prior month revised higher, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market rather than a rapid weakening. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported job openings dropped by 46,000 to 8.184 million by the end of June, while May's openings were revised to 8.23 million from the previously reported 8.14 million.
Key Highlights:
Job Openings:
- Job openings fell by 46,000 to 8.184 million in June.
- May's job openings were revised higher to 8.23 million.
- Job openings have been steadily declining since hitting a record 12.182 million in March 2022.
- There were 0.9 job openings for every unemployed person in June, down from 1.1 in May.
Industry-Specific Changes:
- Increases in job openings: accommodation and food services (120,000), state and local government excluding education (94,000).
- Decreases in job openings: durable goods manufacturing (88,000), federal government (62,000).
Hires and Layoffs:
- Hires declined by 314,000 to 5.341 million, lowering the hires rate to 3.4% from 3.6% in May.
- Layoffs decreased by 180,000 to 1.498 million, the lowest level since November 2022.
- Layoffs rate dropped to 0.9% from 1.1% in May.
- Voluntary quits dropped by 121,000 to 3.282 million, with the quits rate remaining unchanged at 2.1%.
Consumer Confidence:
- The Conference Board survey showed a rise in the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard-to-get" to 16%, the highest since March 2021.
- The share of consumers who believed jobs were "not so plentiful" increased to 49.9% in July from 48.8% in June.
- The labor market differential narrowed to 18.1 from 19.8 in June.
Economic Implications:
- The labor market's cooling, indicated by reduced hiring rather than layoffs, aligns with subsiding inflation and could support the case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September.
- Fed officials are expected to leave the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25-5.5% range after their current two-day policy meeting, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year.
Conclusion: Despite a gradual slowdown in job openings, the labor market remains resilient with modest declines in hiring and layoffs. Consumer confidence in the labor market is waning, reflecting concerns about job availability. These trends will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions.
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