Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
Money managers have withdrawn over US$20 billion from bullish copper bets since mid-May, driven by mounting concerns about Chinese demand, triggering a rapid exodus from one of the key industrial commodities.
Copper prices surged to a record high above US$11,100 per ton in May due to unprecedented investor buying. However, prices have since fallen by more than 20%, with funds retreating significantly. This reversal is attributed to the weak demand from China, challenging investors’ long-term optimism for copper's use in data centers, renewables, and electric vehicles.
Key Takeaways:
- Massive Withdrawal: Over US$20 billion pulled from bullish copper positions since mid-May.
- Price Drop: Copper prices have fallen over 20% from their peak of US$11,100 per ton in May.
- Demand Concerns: Weak demand from China is a significant factor in the price decline.
- Current Status: Bullish positions on Comex and LME are back to March levels but remain historically high.
- Market Outlook: UBS analyst Daniel Major believes the market was overbought in May and momentum-based AI trades played a role. He expects the market to stabilize and consolidate in the near term, with smelters potentially cutting output due to low processing fees.
- Copper Prices: Copper traded 1% lower at US$8,932.50 per ton on the LME on Tuesday, heading for its lowest close since March.
Despite the current downturn, the fundamental outlook for copper remains constructive, with expectations of supply constraints providing confidence for remaining investors. The market is likely to wait for physical catalysts to drive future gains.
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