The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
China’s Communist Party pledged to boost consumer spending as weak domestic demand threatens the annual growth target despite strong exports.
"The focus of economic policies needs to shift towards benefiting people’s livelihood and promoting spending,” senior leaders agreed at a meeting led by President Xi Jinping. Officials vowed to roll out new measures to support the economy without specifying details.
This shift in focus comes amid a lingering property crisis and a weak job market, which are dampening consumer sentiment. Economists are calling for more specific policies, like expanded fiscal stimulus, which has been restrained this year.
Key Takeaways:
- Policy Shift: China’s leadership is prioritizing boosting consumer spending to counter weak domestic demand.
- Market Reaction: The commitment was met with skepticism, with calls for more detailed policies. Government bonds saw increased investment, pushing yields to a low of around 2.14%. The CSI 300 Index for onshore stocks fell 0.6%, paring earlier losses.
- Economic Measures: The central bank has made surprise interest-rate cuts, and the Finance Ministry has funded a cash-for-clunkers program to stimulate consumption.
- Income and Spending: Leaders promised to increase household income and make lower-income groups more willing and able to spend, focusing on services, tourism, and elderly care.
- Global Relations: China acknowledged rising protectionist measures overseas affecting the economy. The meeting emphasized market competition and allowing inefficient companies to fail to combat deflationary pressures.
- Property Market: The government vowed to support local governments in converting unsold homes into subsidized public housing and ensuring delayed units are completed.
Long-Term Outlook: Officials reassured that current economic problems are "temporary pains" as China transitions from old to new growth drivers, emphasizing tech self-sufficiency amid US trade tensions.
Economists are waiting to see if there will be significant fiscal policy changes in the second half of the year to support economic growth.
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