Stock markets rebounded on Thursday after a tech-led tumble, as investors turned their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its potential plans for a rate cut in September after maintaining current rates at its latest meeting.
Key Points:
Stock Market Activity:
- Wall Street was eyeing a recovery in the Nasdaq after its worst day since December 2022.
- Europe's STOXX 600 aimed to end a three-session losing streak, driven by a 1.8% rise in carmaker stocks. Tech stocks were only slightly higher after a significant drop on Wednesday due to potential US export curbs on semiconductor technology to China.
- MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan saw a 2.5% drop in IT stocks overnight. Japan's Nikkei fell more than 2% due to yen strength and a sharp drop in chip stocks.
ECB and Fed Expectations:
- BNP Paribas economist Luca Pennarola suggested September as the likely date for the ECB's next rate cut, given the lack of pushback from policymakers.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde stated, "We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path."
- The US dollar remained near its weakest level in four months, with comments from Federal Reserve officials supporting a potential rate cut in September.
Global Economic Indicators:
- US jobless claims rose more than expected last week, but the data is typically volatile in July due to summer breaks and temporary factory closures.
- The dollar index was 0.1% higher at 103.78, close to the four-month low of 103.64.
- The euro hovered at US$1.0930, while the yen was last at 156, following suspected intervention from Japanese authorities to support the currency.
Market Sentiment:
- Broader risk sentiment remained jittery after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's comments on Taiwan's chip business and its defense obligations to the US.
- China stocks fluctuated as investors awaited policy news from a key leadership gathering in Beijing, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending up 0.55%.
Commodities:
- Gold prices were 0.5% higher at US$2,469 per ounce, just below the record high of US$2,483.60.
- Oil prices continued to rise, with Brent futures up 0.4% at US$85.45 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining 0.7% to US$83.43.
Conclusion: Markets showed signs of recovery after a tech-led decline, with investors closely watching central bank moves and economic data for future direction. The ECB's stance and potential rate cut in September, along with the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate adjustments, remain key factors

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