On July 5, 2024, Wall Street analysts noted a cooling U.S. jobs market, bolstering the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This comes after the release of the June jobs report, which indicated a significant slowdown in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate.
The June non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 206,000 jobs, slightly above the consensus of 190,000. However, substantial downward revisions to the previous two months' data revealed 111,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The three-month moving average of job creation is now at its lowest since January 2021. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 3.4% in April of the previous year, indicating a softening labor market that is curbing wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, marking the slowest annual increase since Q2 2021.
Private sector job creation was notably weak, with government and private education/healthcare services accounting for the majority of new jobs. Sectors such as leisure and hospitality, retail, temporary help, professional business services, and manufacturing saw job losses, resulting in a private payroll increase of only 136,000, compared to the expected 160,000.
The Federal Reserve is likely satisfied with these developments, as they align with its “soft landing” strategy. The economy is adding jobs at a slower pace, and the rising unemployment rate is moderating wage growth, contributing to a path towards the Fed's 2% inflation target. With core CPI expected to come in at 0.2% month-over-month next week, the chances of a rate cut in September are increasing. Analysts predict three rate cuts this year, bringing the Fed Funds rate down to 4% by next summer.

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