CGS International (CGSI) analysts Natalie Ong and Lock Mun Yee have lowered their target price for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) to $1.58, down from $1.59. This adjustment follows a slower-than-expected recovery of Festival Walk mall in Hong Kong.
Key Takeaways:
• Target Price Reduction: The target price was reduced by one cent due to the underperformance of Festival Walk mall.
• Decline in Sales: Hong Kong sales value dropped 6.1% year-on-year as of May 2024, affecting various sectors.
• Revised Forecasts: CGSI revised their FY2024 Hong Kong retail growth forecast to a 6.0% decline from an earlier 3.0% increase.
Key Risks:
• Local Spending Shifts: The decline in local consumer spending and less upside from tourist arrivals.
• Potential Negative Reversions: Some leases at Festival Walk may face negative rent reversions.
Conclusion:
Despite the challenges, MPACT’s high occupancy rate at Festival Walk and its attractive FY2024 distribution per unit (DPU) yield of 7.1% remain positive factors. However, the slower recovery and potential negative impacts on rents have been factored into the reduced target price.

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