Credit rating agency Fitch has downgraded Israel's credit rating from "A-plus" to "A," citing escalating geopolitical risks as the ongoing war in Gaza continues. The agency maintained a negative outlook, signaling that further downgrades could be possible.
Key Highlights:
Ongoing Conflict: The downgrade comes as Israel’s conflict in Gaza, which began after the Hamas-led cross-border attack on October 7, 2023, shows no signs of abating. Fitch warned that the conflict could extend well into 2025 and might even spread to other fronts, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
Market Reaction: Israel's currency, the shekel, fell by as much as 1.7% against the dollar on Monday, and stocks in Tel Aviv closed over 1% lower as investors grew increasingly concerned about the potential for broader conflict in the Middle East.
Impact on Public Finances: Fitch expects the Israeli government to significantly increase military spending by about 1.5% of GDP compared to pre-war levels to strengthen border defenses. This increase in military expenditure is projected to result in a budget deficit of 7.8% of GDP in 2024 and keep the country's debt above 70% of GDP in the medium term.
Potential for Broader Conflict: The risk of the conflict expanding has intensified following the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. This escalation could lead to substantial additional military spending, infrastructure damage, and negative impacts on economic activity and investment.
Fitch’s downgrade reflects the severe economic and geopolitical challenges Israel faces as the conflict in Gaza continues, with significant implications for the country's fiscal health and broader regional stability.

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