What Happened:
After a two-month rally, major indexes hit record highs in June: S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite posted new closing records.
Tailwinds:
Historical data suggests July is often strong for stocks.
Potential continued rally if recent patterns hold: 6%-10% additional gains possible after recovering losses, historically.
Risks to Watch:
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act could shake markets: tax policy shifts and debt ceiling effects on liquidity.
Tariff pause ends July 9: Trade policy uncertainty could pressure sectors sensitive to global supply chains.
Earnings season: Starts mid-July; watch the Magnificent Seven tech stocks. High valuations + disappointing results could trigger correction.
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