What Happened
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that the US and China have signed a trade understanding, sealing terms reached last month in Geneva. The highlight? China commits to delivering rare earth materials critical to industries from EVs to defense — a key gesture that could unlock the easing of US “countermeasures.”
EV batteries
Wind turbines
Smartphones
Military-grade electronics
The US will only lift export curbs once rare earths shipments begin. In the meantime, restrictions on chip software, jet engines, and ethane remain.
Lutnick's Reveal:
China deal inked two days ago
10 trade deals with major partners are "imminent"
July 9 remains the deadline for reinstating up to 50% tariffs
Offshore yuan: flat
S&P 500 futures: steady
China equity futures: unopened at announcement
Why? Because this isn't a full trade agreement — no resolution on:
Fentanyl trafficking
US market access for American exporters
Export licensing hurdles from Beijing
MoneyMaster Take:
The deal removes short-term uncertainty, but execution risks remain.
Rare earth delivery = trigger event for lifting US curbs. Watch the ports.
Industries from tech to defense should prepare for volatile supply chains.
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