After a strong rebound in April, Singapore’s exports hit a snag in May. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slipped 3.5% year-on-year, a sharp turnaround from the 12.4% surge the month before — and well below market expectations.
Electronics Still Growing, But Momentum’s Slowing
Let’s start with the good news: electronics exports rose 1.7% year-on-year in May. That’s far from April’s 23.4% spike, but still positive.
Personal computers (PCs) surged +50.9%
Consumer electronics climbed +49%
Integrated circuits (ICs) were up modestly at +4.3%
But here’s the issue — non-electronics exports slid 5.3%, reversing April’s 9.3% gain.
Non-monetary gold exports dropped 25.9%
Petrochemicals were down 17.8%
Specialised machinery fell 11.7%
In short, the export story is starting to splinter — and that's a red flag.
Trade Surplus Shrinks, US Demand Weakens
Singapore’s trade surplus narrowed to S$5.8 billion in May, down from S$11.4 billion in April. The decline reflects not just weaker exports, but also a retreat in earlier front-loading activities ahead of U.S. tariffs.
Exports to the United States plunged 20.6% in May — a sharp reversal from April’s 1.2% growth — as demand for specialised machinery dropped off. This likely reflects the end of rushed shipments before higher tariffs kicked in.
Across the region, there are signs of a demand pullback:
PC exports to Thailand fell 76.3%
Computer parts to Malaysia crashed 99.3%
Even Indonesia — which saw a whopping 111.1% increase in April — slowed to just 8.1% growth in May.
Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead
While average NODX growth for the year is still positive, the trend is concerning. The global environment isn’t helping — tariff tensions are heating up, especially between the U.S. and China, and Singapore sits in the crossfire.
There’s also increasing concern over sectoral tariffs, particularly in electronics and pharmaceuticals, which could add secondary pressure on export growth in the months ahead.
That said, there’s a small silver lining: Singapore is in ongoing trade talks with the U.S., and there’s currently a 90-day pause before the full impact of new tariffs takes effect. That gives policymakers and businesses a brief window to prepare — or negotiate relief.
Money Master Take
Here’s what investors need to keep in mind:
- Export-driven sectors could see earnings pressure — be cautious around manufacturing plays
- Global demand is softening — a reality check for overly bullish forecasts
- Tariff headlines will drive volatility — but fundamentals matter more than fear
Bottom line: The days of strong, broad-based export growth may be behind us — at least for now. It’s time to stay nimble, monitor trade developments closely, and avoid chasing short-term rebounds without checking the macro weather.
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