Aviation Watch: Consensus Rally or Calm Before the Storm?
Key Takeaways:
Bear Turns Neutral – Morningstar's Angus Hewitt ends his 9-month sell call, upgrading Qantas to hold amid a recent dip from its peak.
78% Rally Fades Slightly – Stock surged to A$10.87 earlier this month before slipping to A$10.08; now trading near A$10.46.
Capex Risk Looms – Qantas faces over A$20 billion in capex for new aircraft over 5 years—double Hewitt’s profit forecast for the period.
The final bear has backed off. Morningstar analyst Angus Hewitt has upgraded Qantas Airways Ltd. to hold, ending his solitary bearish stance after nine months of skepticism. His shift gives new CEO Vanessa Hudson full backing from the analyst community as she leads Qantas through its largest-ever fleet renewal.
While Qantas shares are still up 78% YoY thanks to surging profits, a restored dividend, and robust travel demand, the stock’s recent pullback prompted the rating change. Hewitt emphasized that his upgrade was valuation-driven, not a change in fundamentals—he still sees fair value at A$9.
This brings all 16 analysts tracked by Bloomberg into bullish or neutral territory: 10 buy ratings and six hold.
Despite his shift, Hewitt continues to flag concerns about the airline’s aggressive fleet strategy. With almost 200 aircraft on order, Qantas is facing more than A$20 billion in planned capital expenditure over five years—far exceeding projected profits over the same period.
Hudson remains confident, arguing that the new fuel-efficient fleet will improve long-term earnings and meet return hurdles.

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