The United States recorded a US$284 billion federal budget deficit in October, a figure distorted by the recent government shutdown and the shifting of benefit payments from November into last month’s accounts, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.
The release — delayed due to a 43-day shutdown that idled multiple federal agencies — marked the first monthly report of the 2026 fiscal year. Treasury officials said the interruption caused delays in salary payments and other obligations, contributing to anomalies in the data.
The October shortfall was US$27 billion, or 10% higher than the US$257 billion deficit a year earlier. The increase was largely driven by the early booking of roughly US$105 billion in benefit outlays for certain military and healthcare programmes.
Once adjusted for these timing shifts, the underlying deficit would have been closer to US$180 billion, representing a 29% decline from October 2024’s US$252 billion figure.
Outlays and Shutdown Effects
Total October outlays reached US$689 billion, up 18% from US$584 billion a year earlier, inflated by the November payments pulled forward. Treasury officials said they lacked a precise estimate of how much spending was reduced by shutdown-delayed payments, but believed the impact was less than 5% of total outlays. Under federal law, unpaid salaries and obligations during a shutdown must be repaid once funding resumes.
Record Revenues Driven by Tariffs
Government receipts rose to a record US$404 billion for the month, a 24% jump from US$327 billion in October 2024. The largest contributor was net customs duties, which surged to an all-time monthly high of US$31.4 billion. That compares with US$29.7 billion in September and just US$7.3 billion in the samemonth last year.
President Donald Trump said on Monday that tariff revenues were set to “skyrocket,” arguing that U.S. firms had exhausted inventories stockpiled before his tariff measures and would now be forced to import at higher tariff rates. His comments, posted on Truth Social, also referenced the ongoing Supreme Court review of tariff authority under emergency powers — a case that has prompted scrutiny of the legality of his prior actions.
Revised Deficit Impact from Tariffs
The Congressional Budget Office said last week that tariff reductions tied to recent trade agreements prompted the agency to revise down its estimate of the long-term budgetary impact of Trump’s tariffs. The CBO now expects the measures to reduce U.S. deficits by about US$3 trillion over the next decade — including interest costs — down from the US$4 trillion projection made in August.
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