Singapore’s economy outperformed expectations in the third quarter, but fresh trade data suggests the city-state is not fully out of the woods as global protectionism continues to reshape supply chains.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 3.3% in the July–September period, reversing a 7% rebound in the previous quarter, Enterprise Singapore reported Friday. The decline was driven by a sharp pullback in non-electronics shipments, which offset gains in the electronics sector. Volatile pharmaceutical exports were among the largest drags.
Despite Singapore’s resilience to tariff pressures—thanks in part to its lower US-bound duties relative to regional peers—its deep integration across global supply chains leaves it exposed to geopolitical swings and sector-specific shocks. The impact is already visible: exports to the US plunged 30.7% in the third quarter, the steepest drop among Singapore’s top 10 markets.
For the first nine months of 2025, NODX grew 2.2%, aligning with expectations for a softer second half. While AI-related demand and elevated gold prices may offer some lift in Q4, officials warned that a high comparison base in late 2024 could cap growth.
Enterprise Singapore narrowed its 2025 NODX forecast to around +2.5%, and expects export growth to flatten in 2026, projecting a range of 0% to 2%. Risks include renewed tariff escalation and targeted levies that could curb global demand.

Comments
Post a Comment