Global equities kicked off the week on a strong note, powered by a renewed wave of optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, its strongest session in six weeks, while the Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 2%, marking its biggest gain since May.
Bitcoin also reversed earlier losses, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.03%, underscoring a broader risk-on shift.
Rate-Cut Momentum Drives Market Mood
Bullish sentiment accelerated after a series of Fed officials—including Christopher Waller, John Williams and Mary Daly—signalled they are open to a December rate cut, even as markets navigate an economic data blackout caused by the government shutdown.
With policymakers divided and data clarity muddied, traders say the Fed is operating with less visibility than usual.
BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof noted the current situation is “a more disorderly process than what we are accustomed to,” but still expects Powell to push through one more cut to protect a softening labour market.
Money markets now price in over a 70% chance of a December rate reduction.
Equities Rebound After AI-Sector Volatility
US stocks found footing after last week’s pullback driven by concerns over stretched AI valuations. UBS Securities believes the worst of the selloff may be over, with rate-cut expectations “back on track.”
“The combination of a market reset and rising cut odds has put a year-end melt-up back on the table,” said Chris Murphy of Susquehanna.
Still, some caution prevails. Ed Yardeni expects the S&P 500 to reach his 7,000 target only next year, citing profit-taking in AI names.
Key Data Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims
With Thanksgiving and Black Friday approaching, markets will digest a heavy data slate this week:
September retail sales (expected to moderate)
Producer price index (PPI)
Durable goods orders
Jobless claims, which take on added weight as the Fed leans more heavily on alternative indicators
Markets will be watching whether the data confirms signs of a cooling economy.
Geopolitical Watch
US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping held their first talk since last month’s tariff truce, touching on trade, Taiwan, and the Ukraine conflict—factors that could influence global risk appetite.
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