Singapore’s core inflation rose more than expected in October, reversing September’s sharp cooldown and signalling that underlying price pressures may not be easing as quickly as thought.
Core prices—watched closely by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)—climbed 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.4% in September, driven by firmer increases in services, food, and retail goods. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation rose 0.5%, the fastest pace in several months.
Headline CPI-All Items also picked up to 1.2% YoY, from 0.7% previously, pushed higher by rising private transport costs and the rebound in core inflation.
What’s Driving the Rebound
MAS Outlook: 2025 Still Mild, 2026 Riskier
Despite the October rebound, policymakers expect inflation to remain manageable next year:
MAS core inflation forecast (2025): around 0.5%
2026 core inflation: 0.5%–1.5%
Headline CPI-All Items (2025): 0.5%–1.0%
Headline CPI-All Items (2026): 0.5%–1.5%
MAS highlighted several risks that could shift the outlook:
Investor Angle
The stronger October reading is unlikely to derail Singapore’s 2025 low-inflation trajectory but reinforces expectations that inflation stabilisation will be uneven. For markets, the data supports:
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