US soybean futures climbed to their highest level in nearly a year and a half on Thursday, defying uncertainty over China’s pace of agricultural purchases as traders position ahead of a closely watched government crop report.
January soy contracts rose as much as 0.4% to touch the strongest levels since June 2024. The rally brings prices back to where they traded after President Donald Trump announced last month that China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans under a temporary trade truce — though only a small portion of those volumes has materialized.
Markets are now fixed on Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the first update in two months. Analysts expect a mild downgrade to US soybean yields, with a Bloomberg survey of 26 forecasters projecting 53.1 bushels per acre for November, down from 53.5 previously.
Joe Davis of Futures International said the latest leg higher is driven more by technical momentum than fundamentals, and that the USDA’s numbers will determine whether the rally holds.
“The market is putting a lot of pressure on Friday’s WASDE to answer questions,” he said. “If we see a yield above 53.5 for soy, look for the market to break as the longs exit.”
As of 11 a.m. in Singapore:
Soybeans: +0.4% to $11.385/bushel
Corn: –0.2% to $4.4825/bushel
Wheat: little changed
Key Takeaways for Investors
Soy futures hit a 17-month high, boosted by technical buying and expectations of lower US yields.
China’s promised 12 million-ton purchase remains largely unfulfilled, raising questions about demand strength.
Friday’s USDA WASDE report is the key catalyst — a yield figure above 53.5 bu/acre may trigger a sharp pullback.
Corn softens and wheat stabilizes, suggesting the current upside is concentrated in soy.
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