Gold rose on Monday as traders grew increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will deliver another interest-rate cut in December, even as policymakers remain split and economic data remains distorted by the prolonged US government shutdown.
Fed governor Christopher Waller bolstered expectations after signalling support for a reduction next month, echoing comments from New York Fed president John Williams that a near-term cut remains on the table. With official labour-market data still missing, investors have turned to second-tier indicators to gauge the health of the economy.
Swap markets now imply nearly an 80% probability of a cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting — building on earlier moves in September and October. Lower interest rates generally boost the appeal of gold, which offers no yield and tends to outperform during periods of monetary easing.
Investors this week will parse a backlog of delayed economic data, including September retail sales and producer-price figures on Tuesday, followed by jobless claims on Wednesday. The retail print is expected to show softer consumption amid persistent price pressures, while unemployment-benefit filings will take on greater importance in the absence of the payrolls report.
Still, analysts caution that bullion may remain range-bound despite the shift in rate expectations.
“The rate-cut path is rather hard to predict and a close call, hence gold will likely stay clustering around the current level,” said Ahmad Assiri, strategist at Pepperstone Group. “I don’t see an imminent big move in gold — more a setup for two-way trades in a low-volatility environment.”
Gold has consolidated after hitting a record high above US$4,380 an ounce in October. It remains up about 56% this year, supported by geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and worsening fiscal outlooks across major economies.
Spot gold rose 1.7% to US$4,134.48 an ounce in New York. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. Copper on the London Metal Exchange ended little changed at US$10,773 a ton, with most other base metals edging higher.

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