Investor Takeaways
Soft commodities (coffee, beef, OJ futures) may see pricing pressure as US demand normalizes.
Consumer staples stocks with high exposure to these inputs may benefit from margin relief.
Broader trade policy remains volatile, especially as Trump balances geopolitical goals with voter sensitivity to inflation.
US President Donald Trump has expanded tariff exemptions on a wide range of Brazilian food imports, escalating efforts to ease household cost pressures ahead of 2026 as voter dissatisfaction over the cost of living intensifies.
Under an executive order signed Thursday, dozens of Brazilian food products — including coffee, orange juice, and beef— will now be exempt from the 40% levy imposed earlier this year. The move builds on last week’s rollback of the separate 10% across-the-board duty, effectively wiping out the bulk of Trump’s penalties against the South American agricultural powerhouse.
The newly expanded exemptions take effect retroactively from Nov. 13.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva welcomed the shift, calling it a breakthrough in US–Brazil relations after months of economic friction. The rollback marks a significant diplomatic win for Lula, whose administration has pushed for tariff relief to restore trade flows disrupted by Washington’s earlier sanctions tied to former president Jair Bolsonaro’s legal troubles.
Why It Matters: Food Prices and Politics
Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of coffee and beef, and a key supplier of orange juice. The earlier tariffs intensified US market shortages, contributing to record-high prices for key grocery staples — a pressure point that has increasingly eroded Trump’s economic approval rating.
With Republicans suffering losses in several cost-of-living–focused elections this month, the administration has faced growing political urgency to ease food inflation.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick framed Thursday’s action as an affordability measure, saying Trump is “cutting prices on items America doesn’t produce in sufficient quantities.”
Diplomatic Reset and Shifting Trade Strategy
The tariff reversal underscores a thaw in US–Brazil relations since Trump and Lula resumed high-level talks this year, including a meeting in Malaysia last month where Lula pressed the US to unwind sanctions and trade penalties. Brazil has long stressed that it typically runs a trade deficit with the US, making it an atypical target for Trump’s tariff regime.
Agricultural groups in Brazil — including the beef exporters association and coffee exporters group Cecafé — praised the rollback, saying market access had become increasingly constrained under the prior levies.
Investor Takeaways
Soft commodities (coffee, beef, OJ futures) may see pricing pressure as US demand normalizes.
Consumer staples stocks with high exposure to these inputs may benefit from margin relief.
Broader trade policy remains volatile, especially as Trump balances geopolitical goals with voter sensitivity to inflation.

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