Key Takeaways:
US GDP rose 2.4% in Q4 2024, higher than the previous 2.2% estimate, signalling stronger-than-expected economic momentum at year-end.
The upgrade was driven by net exports, government spending, and business investment. However, consumer spending growth was revised down to 4%, still solid but less robust than initially reported.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — was revised down to 2.6%, a small but notable relief as markets brace for the February PCE report on Friday.
Another key indicator, Gross Domestic Income (GDI), surged 4.5%, marking a notable rebound from the previous quarter. The average of GDP and GDI stood at 3.5%, the best in a year.
Jobless claims remained steady, suggesting the labour market is still resilient, with continuing claims dropping to a one-month low.
Still, economic forecasts for 2025 remain cautious, with concerns growing over Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which could weigh on growth and inflation in the coming months.
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