Summary: Emerging market (EM) stocks took a hit Thursday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles, effective April 3. While equity markets in emerging Europe and Asia reacted negatively, EM currencies remained mostly stable amid speculation that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs next week could be “very lenient.”
Market Reaction:
MSCI Emerging Europe Index: Fell 0.2%
Broad MSCI EM stocks index: Also dipped 0.2%, cushioned slightly by gains in China
Eastern European Currencies:
Hungarian Forint: Down 0.3% vs euro
Polish Zloty: Down 0.2%
Auto-Linked Selloff:
South Korea: Automakers Hyundai and Kia led losses
India: Shares of Tata Motors and various auto parts suppliers declined
Mexico: Peso dropped 0.2%, facing double pressure from tariffs and an anticipated rate cut by the central bank
Currencies Hold Ground:
ING analysts suggest markets may be experiencing “tariff fatigue”, with muted FX reactions due to:
Repetitive trade policy shifts
Possible pre-pricing of expected actions
Hints from Trump of softer reciprocal tariffs next week
South African Rand: Gained 0.2%, bolstered by upcoming producer price data
Ukraine Bonds: Slight dip following earlier steep drop amid concerns over an energy-related truce with Russia
🌍 EM Outlook:
Despite the short-term weakness, EM stocks are on track for their best monthly performance since September, supported by:
Weakening US dollar
Expected fiscal stimulus in Europe
Recovery in Indian and Chinese equities
What to Watch:
April 2-3: Trump’s full reciprocal tariff announcement
Mexico rate decision
Namibia’s 2025 Budget by new finance minister Ericah Shafudah
Ongoing impact of auto tariffs on Asia and Europe’s export economies
Takeaway: Trump’s aggressive tariff push is weighing on EM sentiment, particularly in auto-exposed sectors, but calm in the currency markets suggests investors are holding out for more clarity on policy direction next week.
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