Despite a rebound in February, Malaysia’s auto sector is off to a sluggish start in 2025. Analysts from Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) and RHB Research are keeping a Neutral stance on the sector, citing softening momentum and fading post-pandemic order backlogs.
TIV Outlook: A Normalisation Year
According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), total industry volume (TIV) surged 30.1% month-on-month to 63,906 units in February 2025, helped by more working days. But on a year-to-date basis, TIV slumped 13.9% to 113,100 units, reflecting a return to normal after a record-breaking 2024.
HLIB forecasts full-year TIV to decline 8.2% to 750,000 units, below MAA’s projection of 780,000 units. Slower new bookings and reduced backlogs are cited as key drivers, though new model launches may help support volumes.
Market Leader: Perodua Holding Steady
Perodua continues to lead with 31,400 units sold in February — up 35% MoM and 14.9% YoY. The carmaker is targeting 345,000 units for 2025, just shy of last year’s record. Backlog remains strong at ~68,000 orders, with the launch of a B-segment SUV and its first EV (“D01D”) planned for 2H2025.
Proton’s Mixed Bag
Proton (under DRBHCOM) posted 11,100 units in February (+14.2% MoM, -16.5% YoY). YTD sales dropped 20.3%, despite solid demand for its eMAS 7EV. Analysts note weak exports and pressure on existing models. Upcoming Geely-based models and facelifts for Saga and X50 are expected in 2025.
Other Brands – Struggles & Strategies
- Toyota (SIME): 6,600 units (+23.1% MoM, -10.6% YoY). YTD: -11.7%
- Honda: 7,000 units (+105.2% MoM, +12.6% YoY). YTD: -21.6%
- Nissan (Tan Chong Motor): Just 500 units sold in Feb, with YTD sales down 23.5%
- Mazda (BAUTO): 600 units in Feb, down 63.8% YoY, YTD off 56.6%
Both Nissan and Mazda continue to face headwinds from intense competition, particularly from Chinese entrants, and limited product refreshes.
Analyst Picks: Who Stands Out?
HLIB maintains BUY on
- MBMR (5983.MY) — TP: RM7.40
- SIME (4197.MY) — TP: RM2.65
RHB names SIME as its top pick, citing:
- Strong EV portfolio
- Perodua stake as a buffer in a softening industry
Final Take
While automakers are expected to ramp up sales in March ahead of Aidilfitri, analysts expect Q1 2025 TIV to remain lower YoY. The sector is clearly entering a cyclical cooling phase, with no major catalyst in sight. That said, companies with EV ambitions and Perodua exposure may fare better amid market volatility.
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