Tesla (TSLA) +2% Tesla shares bounced after a rough Monday, despite being down 36% in Q1 — the worst Q1 in company history. Investors are now eyeing its Q1 delivery report due Wednesday, with Street estimates hovering around 380,000 units . Analysts have been revising expectations lower amid backlash over Elon Musk’s role in Trump’s administration. Chinese EV Makers Up XPeng (XPEV) +1.6% : Delivered 33,205 vehicles in March — its fifth straight 30k+ month. NIO (NIO) +1.6% and Li Auto (LI) +1.4% also gained on strong March deliveries. Nvidia (NVDA) -0.6% Still under pressure after a 19.3% Q1 drop , its worst since 2022. Investor worries over AI spending, tech valuation, and trade tensions are weighing heavily. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -5% Fell after a Texas judge dismissed J&J’s third bankruptcy attempt to settle talc-related lawsuits via Chapter 11. PVH Corp (PVH) +18.9% Shares surged after Q4 earnings beat expectations ...
All eyes are on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge this Friday — and the market might not like what it sees.
After a brief sigh of relief from softer CPI and PPI earlier this month, February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to show that inflation hasn’t cooled further — and might be getting stickier.
Key Takeaways:
1. Headline PCE Expected to Hold Steady
Total PCE inflation is forecasted at +0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY — unchanged from January.
Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the same 2.5% figure.
2. Core PCE Might Tick Higher
Core PCE (ex-food & energy) is projected at +0.3% MoM and 2.7% to 2.8% YoY — slightly hotter than January.
Key drivers: rising goods prices, healthcare, and financial services.
3. Why This Matters for Investors
The Fed won’t tolerate inflation drifting further from its 2% target.
If Friday’s data is sticky, rate cuts may get delayed or reduced.
Median projection: 2 rate cuts in 2025
But Fed officials like Bostic and Musalem are sounding more cautious, hinting at only 1 cut, or even none, due to tariffs and global trade tensions.
4. No Easy Way Out
Powell admitted the Fed likely won’t hit 2% inflation until 2027.
With steady growth and jobs, the Fed’s hands are tied: “No margin of error” on inflation, says Cetera CIO Gene Goldman.
Investor Insights:
Don’t get too comfortable with the idea of quick rate cuts. This Friday’s PCE report could reshape market expectations — especially if core inflation overshoots. Tech and growth stocks may stay volatile. Watch how the bond market and dollar react post-release.
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