After a red-hot start to 2025, China’s tech rally is losing steam. Despite big promises in artificial intelligence (AI), investors are demanding real earnings growth and clear macro signals to stay bullish.
Hang Seng Tech Index Stalls
The Hang Seng Tech Index came close to correction territory this week.
Only Alibaba saw notable post-earnings gains, thanks to its US$53 billion AI investment plan over the next three years and continuous AI product rollouts.
Other tech giants like Tencent, Baidu, JD.com, and Meituan failed to impress, despite beating earnings expectations.
AI Hype Isn’t Enough (For Now)
DeepSeek’s breakthrough had sparked a 25% year-to-date gain, but now markets want more than hype.
“Share prices have run ahead of earnings,” noted Andy Wong of Solomons Group.
Investors need tangible AI monetization and sustained business improvement, especially as core businesses like advertising (Baidu) and delivery (Meituan) face headwinds.
What Analysts Say:
JPMorgan’s Alex Yao: Further rally depends on “stable or improving core businesses” + “positive AI developments.”
Despite recent dips, valuations remain attractive:
Hang Seng Tech Index: 17.6x forward earnings
Nasdaq 100: 24x
3-year average for Hang Seng: 19x
Mixed Signals from Earnings
Alibaba leads the AI charge with multimodal Qwen models (text, image, audio, video).
Tencent's capital spending plan lacked excitement.
JD.com’s stock fell 8%, even with its best sales growth in 3 years.
Companies are cutting costs but now pivoting back to investment, with AI as top priority.
What Could Spark the Next Rally?
Stronger domestic demand
Overseas market expansion
Continued AI innovation and application
Government stimulus clarity
Easing US-China trade tensions – Trump hinted he might reduce tariffs if China helps with the TikTok deal.
Bottom line: China’s tech sector needs more than AI headlines — investors are now watching for real growth, better margins, and macro stability to fuel the next leg up.
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