Quick Summary
US stock futures fell sharply after Donald Trump signalled an imminent Fed chair announcement
Kevin Warsh is widely seen as the frontrunner, with prediction markets pricing a 94% probability
Dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher, pressuring equities
Markets view Warsh as moderate — not aggressively dovish, raising liquidity concerns
What’s Driving the Market
US equity futures retreated after President Donald Trump said he has firmed up his choice to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with reports pointing to Kevin Warsh.
Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Warsh visited the White House on Thursday, fuelling expectations of a formal nomination as early as Friday.
Why Markets Are Nervous
While Warsh is seen as supportive of lower interest rates, investors are focused on his reputation for:
Caution on heavy monetary stimulus
Preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet
Key tension: Lower rates, but potentially tighter liquidity.
Compared with other names floated — Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller and Rick Rieder — Warsh is viewed as less radical and more disciplined.
Market Reaction (Pre-Market)
Dow E-mini: -0.93%
S&P 500 E-mini: -1.04%
Nasdaq 100 E-mini: -1.31%
Russell 2000 futures: -1.63% (rate-sensitive)
VIX: 18.85, hovering near one-week highs
The US dollar and Treasury yields edged higher, adding pressure to risk assets.
Recent Volatility Still Fresh
Nasdaq fell over 2% on Thursday before closing -0.7%
S&P 500 closed -0.1% after a sharp intraday drop
Microsoft logged its worst day since March 2020, after Azure growth disappointed
Apple guided for strong revenue growth but warned rising memory costs are pressuring margins
Commodities & Miners
Gold fell over 5%, silver slid 11%
US-listed gold and silver miners sold off sharply, tracking bullion losses
Bottom Line
Markets are repricing Fed risk, not just rate cuts.
Kevin Warsh’s emergence as Trump’s likely pick has shifted focus from how fast rates fall to how tight liquidity could become, driving volatility across equities, FX and commodities.
Key Takeaways
Fed leadership uncertainty is driving near-term volatility
Warsh seen as credible, but balance-sheet cautious
Dollar and yields rising is a headwind for stocks
Markets remain highly sensitive to Fed signalling

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