KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 28 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia snapped its five-day winning streak to close lower on Wednesday, as investors took profit following a cumulative gain of 4.25 per cent over the past five sessions, said an analyst. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) fell 14.76 points or 0.83 per cent to 1,756.49 from Tuesday’s close of 1,771.25. The market bellwether opened 1.46 points lower at 1,769.79, marking the day’s high, and hit a low of 1,750.05 during the mid-afternoon session. Market breadth was negative with losers trouncing gainers 876 to 384, while 525 counters were unchanged, 964 untraded and 94 suspended. Turnover improved to 3.65 billion units worth RM4.41 billion from Tuesday's 3.58 billion units worth RM4.46 billion.
Meta reports 4Q25 and FY2025 results after the close on Jan 28, but the quarter itself is unlikely to decide the stock’s direction. Management has already guided 4Q revenue at US$56–59bn, and consensus sits modestly above the upper end.
Instead, this earnings event is best viewed as a gateway to 2026 — where AI spending discipline, monetisation credibility, and execution timelines will matter far more than headline beats.
Quick Setup: Q4 Is Fine — The Debate Is 2026
Consensus snapshot
Revenue: ~US$58.3bn (+20% YoY)
EPS: ~US$8.19 (implies ~US$20.6bn net income)
A “not-bad” Q4 is largely priced in. The real swing factor will be:
FY26 OpEx & CapEx guidance
Clarity on AI monetisation milestones
Evidence that spend is converging toward earnings, not drifting away from it
3 Things That Will Move the Stock
1. FY26 CapEx & OpEx: Spend Is Assumed — Accountability Is Not
Street expectations are aggressive:
FY26 OpEx: ~US$147–152bn (+25–31% YoY)
FY26 CapEx: ~US$110–120bn (+53–71% YoY)
This is no longer about whether Meta spends. The market already assumes it will.
What investors now need is a testable framework that links incremental AI spend to:
Product-level improvements
Measurable ad performance uplift
Durable earnings power
The upcoming next-gen Llama model refresh (expected 1H26) has quietly become the verification window.
Investors care less about benchmark supremacy — and far more about what new workflows, formats, and budgets unlock because of it.
Internal signals (e.g. early models like Avocado and Mango) suggest progress — but external monetisation proof is the gating factor.
Key risk: If management cannot anchor spend to a visible 1H26 product or revenue milestone, CapEx risks being read as structural margin drag rather than strategic investment.
2. Advertising Flywheel: Still Strong, But Can It Broaden?
Meta’s core ad engine remains the reason the market has tolerated elevated AI spend so far. AI-driven recommendation and conversion gains continue to support pricing and volumes.
But valuation upside increasingly depends on incremental engines, not just optimisation of the core feed:
WhatsApp monetisation (~US$9bn annualised estimate)
Threads ads (early-stage, ~500m users)
Longer-dated AI monetisation (paid tools, enterprise, creator utilities)
The question for 2026 is whether these remain options — or begin to look like emerging revenue pillars.
3. Hardware Optionality: Ray-Ban Meta Is Upside, Not the Base Case
Smart glasses are now embedded in Meta’s AI narrative, but the risk-reward is asymmetric:
Production discussions point toward up to 20m units annual capacity by end-2026
However, margin dilution, competition, and EU privacy constraints remain real frictions
Regulatory scrutiny — particularly around always-on camera and microphone features — could:
Delay mass adoption
Increase compliance costs
Create a two-speed product experience (US vs Europe)
Bottom line: hardware is upside optionality, not a valuation anchor.
What This Earnings Must Deliver
Meta does not need to:
Re-rate the stock on Q4 numbers
Promise near-term margin expansion
Meta does need to:
Define clear AI checkpoints for 1H26
Show how those checkpoints de-risk monetisation
Convince investors that CapEx gravity eventually turns into earnings leverage
If management succeeds, the market can justify multiple support despite higher spend.
If not, the same guidance risks being interpreted as long-duration cash absorption with uncertain payoff.
Market Positioning & Options Read-Through
Put/Call ratio: ~0.61 (bullish skew)
Implied volatility: ~42%
Market-priced move: ±6.5% post-earnings
Sentiment is constructive — but not forgiving.
Bottom Line
This is no longer about Meta proving it can build powerful AI models. That debate is over.
The real question for 2026 is whether AI spend transitions from strategic ambition to monetisation reality — on a timeline the market can underwrite.
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