Quick Summary
Global stocks slid sharply after reports pointed to Kevin Warsh as Donald Trump’s pick for Fed chair
US dollar and Treasury yields jumped, signalling tighter financial expectations
Gold and silver plunged, reversing their recent safe-haven rally
Markets fear a smaller Fed balance sheet, even if rates eventually fall
What Triggered the Sell-Off
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said he had finalised his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, with media reports pointing to Kevin Warsh.
Bloomberg and Reuters reported Warsh visited the White House on Thursday, fuelling expectations of an imminent nomination.
On prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of Warsh’s nomination jumped to 94%, from 35% earlier in the day.
Why Markets Reacted Negatively
While Warsh is seen as supportive of lower interest rates, investors are focused on his stance that:
The Fed should maintain a much smaller balance sheet
Monetary stimulus should be more restrained
Key concern: Lower rates paired with balance-sheet tightening could drain global liquidity.
Market Reaction at a Glance
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index: -1.4%, biggest one-day drop in a month
S&P 500 e-mini futures: -0.7%
Nasdaq e-mini futures: -0.9%
US dollar index: +0.4%, snapping recent weakness
US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.27% (+4.6 bps)
Precious Metals Hit Hard
After days of explosive gains:
Gold plunged up to 5.2% to US$5,114.88
Silver sank 7.5% to US$107.37
Platinum and palladium dropped around 8%
Markets quickly unwound safe-haven trades as rate expectations shifted.
Asia Markets: Mixed Picture
China / Hong Kong stocks: -2.2%, leading regional losses
Japan (Nikkei 225): -0.1%
Indonesia: +1.2%, rebounding after exchange chief resigned following the worst rout since 1998
South Korea: +0.1%, capping a 24% monthly gain — best since 1998
Rates & Policy Expectations
Fed funds futures now price:
84.6% chance the Fed holds rates at its March meeting
Slightly reduced expectations for future cuts
According to market strategists, Warsh’s credibility could stabilise policy messaging, but at the cost of tighter liquidity conditions.
Other Asset Moves
Brent crude: -1.5% to US$69.62, after Trump signed an order targeting countries trading oil with Cuba
Bitcoin: -2.0% to US$82,709
Ethereum: -2.7% to US$2,740
Bottom Line
Quick Takeaways
Warsh seen as credible, but balance-sheet hawkish
Dollar and yields up, stocks and metals down
Liquidity expectations now driving volatility

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