Quick Summary
US dollar has fallen nearly 12% under Trump’s second term, hitting its weakest level since 2022
Trump’s tariffs, Fed pressure, and geopolitical rhetoric are reviving fears of deliberate dollar weakening
Investors are hedging, diversifying, and reducing US exposure
Emerging markets and gold benefited, while confidence in the dollar’s safe-haven status erodes
What’s Driving the Dollar Selloff
The so-called “debasement trade” is back.
Currency traders globally have ramped up bets against the dollar as President Donald Trump:
Renewed tariff threats against allies
Publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates
Signalled comfort with a weaker dollar, calling its level “great for business”
Stoked geopolitical unease, from Greenland rhetoric to Western Hemisphere dominance
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped almost 12%, marking its sharpest slide since Trump’s April trade-war shocks.
Why Investors Are Pulling Back
Market participants increasingly believe:
The administration won’t resist a weaker dollar, even if it doesn’t openly pursue one
Political polarisation and fiscal risks are mounting
A weaker dollar may be seen as a tool to boost exports ahead of midterm elections
According to ING Bank, the dollar is now “moving along the path of least resistance — weaker.”
Fed Pick Offers Only Temporary Relief
The dollar found brief support after Trump moved to nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell.
Warsh is seen as:
Less aggressively dovish than other candidates
More likely to resist inflation and excessive easing
Still, strategists say this only slows, not reverses, the broader trend.
Capital Is Quietly Leaving the US
Signs of a structural shift are emerging:
Hedging against dollar declines hit record levels
Global funds are rotating into non-US markets
An MSCI index of overseas equities rose nearly 30% last year, double the S&P 500’s gain
At Pacific Investment Management Co., portfolio manager Pramol Dhawan warned:
“This isn’t noise — it’s a regime shift.”
Who’s Benefiting
Emerging market equities: +9% in January, best start since 2012
Emerging market currencies: Brazil real and South African rand +~4%
Gold: surged to record highs (before this week’s pullback)
The dollar’s safe-haven premium is fading, according to analysts at Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Why This Matters for the US
The US runs a ~US$1.8 trillion budget deficit and relies heavily on foreign buyers of Treasuries.
Former Fed official Robert Kaplan warned that with nearly US$39 trillion in debt, currency stability may matter more than exports.
Bottom Line
The dollar still dominates — but its automatic safe-haven status is no longer taken for granted.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s policies are weakening dollar confidence
Hedging and diversification are accelerating
Emerging markets are early winners
US debt dependence raises long-term risks

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