Quick Summary
Mexico’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4, avoiding a technical recession
GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, beating forecasts
Agriculture led the rebound, offsetting weak investment and tariff pressure
Full-year growth slowed to 0.5%, highlighting structural challenges
What Happened
Mexico’s economy staged a stronger-than-expected rebound in the fourth quarter, helping the country dodge a technical recession after a contraction in Q3.
Q4 GDP: +0.8% q/q (vs 0.6% expected)
Q4 GDP: +1.6% y/y (vs 1.3% expected)
Q3 GDP: -0.3% q/q
The data was released by Mexico’s national statistics agency and reflects preliminary figures.
What Drove the Growth
The rebound was powered mainly by agriculture, which delivered outsized gains:
Agriculture: +5.3% y/y
Industry & manufacturing: +0.4%
Services: +2.0%
Key driver: A strong agricultural quarter helped compensate for sluggish investment and trade-related headwinds.
Full-Year Picture Still Soft
Despite the Q4 bounce:
2025 GDP growth: 0.5%
Marks the fourth consecutive year of slowing growth
The central bank Banco de México (Banxico) had forecast growth of just 0.3%, slightly below market expectations.
Policy Context
President Claudia Sheinbaum has previously downplayed weak GDP readings, arguing they fail to capture improvements in living standards and poverty reduction.
However, she has recently:
Met with economists and bankers
Sought ways to revive investment
Aimed to accelerate growth amid a challenging economic backdrop
Bottom Line
Key Takeaways
Q4 growth beat expectations and avoided recession
Agriculture was the standout performer
Industry and services growth remained modest
Long-term growth challenges persist
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