European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said fresh tariff threats from the US would have only a limited impact on euro-area inflation, even as geopolitical tensions rise.
Speaking in a radio interview, Lagarde noted that additional tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump would lift the average tariff rate on the euro area to around 15% from 12%, but the near-term inflation effect would remain modest.
Inflation Impact Seen as Minimal
Lagarde said the ECB expects only a slight upside impact on inflation, stressing that price pressures are already well contained.
Euro-area inflation: ~1.9%
Tariff impact: “Very slightly affected, probably to the upside”
Overall effect: Limited in the short term
Her comments suggest that tariffs alone are unlikely to derail the ECB’s inflation outlook.
Bigger Risk Lies in Confidence, Not Prices
While downplaying inflation risks, Lagarde warned that the uncertainty created by repeated policy reversals could be more damaging to the economy.
She highlighted that:
Major exporters, including Germany, would face a larger economic hit
Ongoing trade tensions risk triggering a confidence shock
Policy unpredictability could weigh on investment and growth
“What is far more serious is the degree of uncertainty created by the constant reversals,” Lagarde said.
Market Takeaway
Tariffs are not a major inflation threat for Europe — for now
Confidence and uncertainty pose the greater risk to growth
ECB policy expectations are unlikely to shift solely on tariff developments
The comments reinforce the view that while trade tensions may rattle markets, the ECB remains focused on underlying inflation dynamics, rather than headline geopolitical shocks.

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