Gold’s rally is far from over. Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast by US$500 to US$5,400 per ounce, citing sustained demand from private investors and emerging-market central banks seeking diversification.
What’s Driving the Upgrade
The bank said gold demand linked to global policy uncertainty and reserve diversification is proving more durable than expected.
Key point: Goldman now assumes diversification-driven buyers will not unwind their positions in 2026, effectively lifting the baseline for gold prices.
Spot gold recently touched a record high of US$4,887.82/oz, and the metal is already up more than 11% in 2026, after a 64% surge in 2025.
Central Banks and ETFs Remain Supportive
Goldman expects:
Emerging-market central banks to continue buying gold, averaging ~60 tonnes in 2026
Western gold ETF holdings to rise as monetary policy eases
The bank also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, a backdrop that typically supports non-yielding assets like gold.
What Could Slow the Rally
While bullish overall, Goldman flagged one key risk:
A sharp drop in global policy uncertainty could trigger liquidation of macro hedges, weighing on gold prices
Still, the bank sees this as a downside risk rather than a base case.
Bottom Line
2026-end gold target raised to US$5,400/oz
Diversification demand is structural, not tactical
Central banks and potential Fed rate cuts remain powerful tailwinds
Gold’s role as a core hedge against policy and geopolitical risk appears more entrenched than ever.

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