Despite Warren Buffett’s legendary track record, Berkshire Hathaway may struggle to consistently beat the market in the coming years. The company’s sheer size limits its ability to invest in smaller, undervalued companies, making it more aligned with the broader market's performance.
In 2024, Berkshire Hathaway barely outperformed the S&P 500, returning 25.5% vs. 25.0%. Over the past 10 to 30 years, its performance has remained close to the market average. Statistically, it would take over 100 years of continued outperformance to prove that Berkshire’s success isn’t due to luck.
A key focus in its upcoming annual report is its cash reserves, which stood at $325 billion in September 2024. If this number increases, it could signal Buffett’s cautious stance on the market. However, even with his exceptional record, beating the market gets harder as Berkshire continues to grow.
Key Takeaways:
- Berkshire Hathaway’s massive size makes it harder to outperform the market.
- In 2024, it slightly outperformed the S&P 500 (25.5% vs. 25.0%).
- Statistically, it would take 100+ years to confirm its success isn’t just luck.
- Berkshire held $325 billion in cash (as of Sept 2024), raising questions about Buffett’s market outlook.
- Despite Buffett’s history, market-beating performance is no longer guaranteed.
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