China’s steel market is not collapsing despite the property downturn. Instead, demand is stabilising at a lower level as manufacturing, exports and new energy sectors gradually replace construction-driven demand. This is not a demand collapse, it’s a structural shift from property to industrial and export-driven demand. What’s Really Happening The sharp drop in construction activity has clearly hurt steel demand: Property-related steel (like rebar) has fallen significantly Construction’s share of demand is shrinking But the broader market tells a different story: Total steel demand is only slightly below past peaks Manufacturing, shipbuilding and energy transition sectors are absorbing demand Exports are acting as a key buffer Instead of a sudden crash, the industry is entering a long plateau . Why This Matters The market had expected a sharp collapse but reality is more gradual: Demand is declining slowly, not falling off a cliff China is shifting from construction-led growth to ...
US equities staged a strong rebound, with major indices rising over 1%, as falling oil prices and signs of potential de-escalation in the Middle East boosted risk sentiment.
Stocks Snap Losing Streak on Diplomatic Optimism
Wall Street rallied after reports of “productive” US-Iran discussions, prompting a temporary delay in planned strikes.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
- S&P 500 Index gained 1.2%
- Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.4%
The move snapped a three-day losing streak, signalling a shift back to risk-on sentiment.
Oil Collapse Drives Market Relief
The rally was driven by a sharp reversal in oil prices:
- Crude plunged as much as 14% intraday
- Prices fell to around US$84 per barrel
The drop followed easing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for ~20% of global energy supply.
Lower oil prices helped reduce fears of:
- Runaway inflation
- Further interest rate hikes
Big Tech Leads Market Recovery
Technology stocks led gains as macro pressure eased:
- Tesla +3.5%
- Broadcom +4.1%
- Amazon +2.3%
- NVIDIA and Meta Platforms also advanced
The rebound reflects renewed investor appetite for growth and AI-related names when macro risks ease.
Broader Market Participation Strengthens
The rally extended beyond tech:
- Industrials like 3M and Caterpillar gained over 3%
- Consumer and home improvement stocks also advanced
This suggests a broad-based recovery, not just sector-specific buying.
Crypto and Risk Assets Join Rally
Risk assets also benefited:
- Bitcoin rose 3.8%
- Ethereum gained 4.9%
The move highlights a return of risk appetite as geopolitical tensions temporarily eased.
Outlook: Still Headline-Driven
Despite the rebound, uncertainty remains:
- Iran has denied ongoing negotiations
- Oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments
Markets are likely to remain volatile and headline-driven, with sentiment tied closely to:
- Geopolitical progress
- Energy price movements
- Central bank expectations
Investor Takeaways
- US equities rebounded strongly as oil prices plunged and diplomatic hopes improved.
- Lower oil reduces inflation pressure and rate-hike risks, supporting equities.
- Big Tech and cyclicals led gains, signalling broad risk-on sentiment.
- Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with volatility likely to persist.
- Investors should monitor oil prices and Iran-US developments as key drivers.
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