Global markets tumbled after fresh attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf reignited fears of a prolonged supply shock, sending crude prices above US$100 per barrel and reviving inflation concerns.
Oil Breaks US$100 Barrier
The spike followed attacks on two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters and reports that Iraqi oil ports halted operations. Oman also evacuated vessels from its key export terminal as a precaution.
Iran has warned oil could reach US$200 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.
Key Point: Renewed shipping attacks shattered hopes of de-escalation and pushed oil above US$100.
Strategic Reserve Release Fails to Calm Markets
The International Energy Agency announced plans to release 400 million barrels of oil — the largest drawdown in its history.
However, doubts remain about how quickly reserves can reach markets and whether they can offset sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows.
Global Shares Slide
The selloff spread across major markets:
STOXX Europe 600 -0.5%
S&P 500 futures -0.5%
Nasdaq 100 futures -0.5%
MSCI All-Country World Index -0.3%
Investors unwound earlier bets on a near-term ceasefire after odds of a US–Iran truce by end-March dropped to 26% from 45% earlier in the week.
Key Point: Markets are rapidly repricing a longer, more disruptive conflict.
Inflation Fears Intensify
While US CPI rose 0.3% in February — in line with expectations — markets largely dismissed the data as backward-looking given the war-driven oil surge.
Bond yields climbed as inflation risks outweighed safe-haven demand:
US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.23%
Fed funds futures now price only one additional rate cut this year
The risk of sustained energy inflation has also prompted speculation that the European Central Bank could even raise rates as early as June.
Key Point: Energy-driven inflation is threatening to derail global easing cycles.
Currency Markets Reflect Risk Shift
Investors sought the liquidity of the US dollar:
Euro slipped to US$1.1548
Dollar traded near ¥158.88
Energy-importing currencies, including Japan and parts of Europe, faced renewed pressure.
Outlook
Markets are grappling with three intertwined risks:
Prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
Sustained oil prices above US$100
Reacceleration of global inflation
If supply interruptions persist, oil markets may remain volatile and central banks could be forced to rethink rate-cut plans.
Overall theme: Gulf shipping attacks reignited energy shock fears, sending oil above US$100 and triggering a fresh global equity selloff.

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