Singapore’s inflation eased in February, offering temporary relief before the Middle East conflict triggered a surge in energy prices, which is expected to reshape the near-term outlook.
Headline Inflation Moderates
Singapore’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% year-on-year in February, down from 1.4% in January, in line with expectations.
However, underlying price pressures showed signs of firming:
- Core inflation rose to 1.4% YoY, up from 1.0% previously
- This marked the highest level since December 2024
The data suggests that while headline inflation cooled, core price momentum is gradually building.
Cost Pressures Emerging Across Key Sectors
Price increases were driven by several essential categories:
- Transport (+2.7%) — reflecting higher mobility and cost pressures
- Food (+1.6%) — indicating steady consumption demand
- Recreation & culture (+1.9%)
Meanwhile, housing and utilities remained relatively subdued at +0.3%, helping to cap overall inflation.
Energy Shock Likely to Reverse Trend
The February data does not yet reflect the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has since pushed oil prices above US$100–110 per barrel.
As an import-dependent economy, Singapore is particularly exposed to:
- Higher fuel and electricity costs
- Rising transport and logistics expenses
- Potential supply chain disruptions
DBS estimates that around 7% of Singapore’s CPI basket is directly affected by energy prices, suggesting a meaningful pass-through effect.
Inflation Risks Now Tilted to the Upside
Economists expect the conflict to push inflation higher in the coming months, potentially more than it impacts economic growth.
Higher energy costs could:
- Increase consumer prices and business expenses
- Squeeze corporate margins
- Influence the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy stance
Policy Implications: MAS Likely to Stay Cautious
With inflation risks rising again, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may adopt a more cautious or tightening bias, likely through:
- Currency appreciation policy adjustments
- Maintaining a strong SGD to contain imported inflation
Investor Takeaways
- Singapore’s headline inflation cooled to 1.2%, but core inflation is rising, signalling underlying pressure.
- The data does not yet reflect the energy-driven inflation shock from the Middle East conflict.
- Singapore’s import dependence makes it vulnerable to rising fuel and commodity prices.
- About 7% of CPI is directly exposed to energy costs, implying further upside risk.
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