US equities opened higher on Friday as soft economic data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year . Investors also remained cautious as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to influence market sentiment and energy prices. Market Rebound After Recent Losses The S& P 500 rose 0.8% in early New York trading, recovering after three consecutive sessions of declines . The Nasdaq 100 also gained 0.8% , supported by technology stocks, although the Magnificent Seven index remained near ...
Bitcoin may be approaching a key accumulation zone historically associated with the end of major crypto bear markets, according to cycle indicators closely monitored by institutional investors.
After losing nearly half its value since October, several technical and on-chain metrics now suggest the majority of the downside may already be behind the market, although the final bottom may still lie slightly below current levels.
Despite ongoing volatility, some analysts argue the risk-reward profile for long-term investors is beginning to improve.
Bear Market Signals Begin to Align
Bitcoin recently traded around $73,800, recovering roughly 5% on Friday. However, it remains far below its previous peak of over $126,000 reached before the October market selloff.
Brett Munster, portfolio manager at Blockforce Capital, tracks four key indicators used historically to identify Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
One of those metrics has already entered territory that historically coincided with market lows. The remaining signals point to potential support between $54,000 and $58,000, levels slightly below current prices.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $60,000 in February, touching the upper edge of what Munster considers the likely bottoming range.
According to the analysis, the broader high-probability accumulation zone lies between $45,000 and $60,000.
MVRV Indicator Signals Potential Undervaluation
The first indicator flashing a potential bottom signal is the MVRV Z-Score, a widely followed on-chain valuation metric.
This measure compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, or the average price at which coins last moved on-chain.
Historically, when the MVRV Z-Score drops below 0.4, Bitcoin has entered undervalued territory during bear markets.
Currently, the metric sits at around 0.38, indicating that prices are approaching levels where long-term investors historically began accumulating.
Key Technical Support Levels Still Below Market
Several other structural indicators provide additional reference points for where Bitcoin may stabilize.
The realized price, representing the average acquisition cost across the network, is currently near $54,000.
Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average, another widely watched support level in previous cycles, sits close to $58,000.
Another structural pattern also suggests Bitcoin’s downturns are becoming less severe over time. As the asset class matures and liquidity deepens, each peak-to-trough decline has historically been smaller than the previous cycle.
Based on this trend, analysts estimate the potential bottom range could fall between $45,000 and $55,000.
Institutional Demand Begins to Return
Even if selling pressure slows, a sustained recovery will likely require renewed demand from institutional investors.
There are early signs that such demand may already be returning.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded renewed inflows after months of withdrawals. Over the past month alone, more than $1.6 billion has flowed into funds, including BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and VanEck’s HODL ETF.
According to Munster, once selling pressure fades, even moderate inflows can significantly move crypto markets due to limited liquid supply.
Timing the Bottom Remains Difficult
Despite improving signals, identifying the exact market bottom remains extremely challenging.
Crypto bear markets have historically extended longer than expected, even when valuation metrics suggest prices are attractive.
Munster argues that investors often make the mistake of waiting for the perfect entry, only to miss the broader recovery.
In the previous bear market, the difference between buying Bitcoin at $19,000 versus the ultimate bottom near $15,600ultimately mattered little for long-term investors.
The more effective approach, he suggests, is gradual accumulation during periods of market weakness.
Investor Takeaways
Bitcoin is approaching a historical accumulation zone between $45,000 and $60,000, based on multiple cycle indicators.
The MVRV Z-Score has already entered undervalued territory, historically associated with market bottoms.
Key technical support levels, including the 200-week moving average and realized price, sit near $54K–$58K.
Institutional demand may be returning, with more than $1.6 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past month.
Gradual accumulation strategies may outperform attempts to perfectly time the market bottom.
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