US retailers are scrambling to adjust their strategies as tariff rules shift again, adding fresh uncertainty to consumer spending and profit outlooks in 2026. Key Takeaways Tariff rate raised to 15% after Supreme Court ruling Retailers warn of “policy whiplash” complicating planning Companies reluctant to raise prices amid cautious consumers Middle East tensions add new shipping and fuel cost risks Tariff Landscape Shifts Again The US government lifted temporary import levies to 15% , up from 10%, after the Supreme Court struck down emergency duties. Retailers say the bigger problem isn’t just higher tariffs — it’s unpredictability. Key Point: Policy volatility, not just tariff levels, is the main risk for retailers. Companies can plan for higher costs — but not for rules that change week to week. Who Is Most Affected? Abercrombie & Fitch Factored the 15% tariff into forecasts Estimated 70 basis-point hit (~US$40 million) Previously projected US$90 million impact Best Buy Heav...
Expectations for interest rate cuts across developing Asia are rapidly unraveling as surging oil prices from the Iran war revive inflation risks and narrow central banks’ policy room.
Key Takeaways
Oil surge is reversing rate-cut bets across developing Asia
India and the Philippines now seen leaning toward rate hikes
Thailand and Indonesia’s easing odds are shrinking fast
A sustained 10% oil rise could add up to 0.8ppt to inflation in parts of Asia
Oil Shock Reshapes Policy Expectations
Brent crude is trading near US$83 per barrel, heading for its biggest weekly surge since 2022.
Overnight index swaps show a dramatic shift:
India and the Philippines now pricing potential rate hikes
Thailand and Indonesia still seen cutting, but probabilities falling sharply
Malaysia swaps pricing over 30% odds of a 25bps hike within 12 months
Key Point: Oil-driven inflation risks are wiping out rate-cut expectations across Asia.
Inflation Impact Could Be Significant
According to Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd:
A sustained 10% increase in oil prices could lift annual headline inflation by:
0.6–0.8ppt in Thailand
0.5–0.7ppt in the Philippines and India
0.4–0.6ppt in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam
For fuel-importing economies, currency weakness compounds the inflation shock.
Philippines and Indonesia Under Pressure
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas flagged concerns over near-term inflation after February CPI accelerated to 2.4%.
Nomura economist Euben Paracuelles said the oil spike increases the likelihood that the BSP holds rates in April instead of cutting.
Indonesia faces similar pressure:
Inflation surged to 4.76%, breaching target range
Trade surplus narrowed sharply
Rupiah near record lows, prompting central bank intervention
Key Point: Fuel-import-dependent economies face rising inflation and currency stress simultaneously.
India Among the Most Vulnerable
India imports about 90% of its oil, with roughly half coming from Persian Gulf countries.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pose risks to:
Current account balance
Currency stability
Inflation trajectory
Oil’s surge could significantly alter India’s policy outlook if sustained.
Malaysia and Thailand: Limited Cushion
Bank Negara Malaysia kept rates at 2.75%, but swaps are now pricing tightening risks.
In Thailand, inflation has been negative for months, yet officials warn fuel and food prices could start rising soon.
Broader Regional Theme
Even before the Iran conflict, inflation pressures were beginning to stir across Asia. The oil shock narrows room for monetary easing and forces central banks to prioritise:
Currency stability
Inflation control
Financial market confidence
Overall theme: The Iran-driven oil surge is closing the window for rate cuts across developing Asia, shifting policy expectations toward tightening or prolonged pauses.
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