MONEY MASTER

Japan’s latest wage negotiations delivered another strong outcome, with  pay increases exceeding 5% for a third consecutive year , reinforcing expectations that the central bank may  proceed with further policy tightening . Strong Wage Momentum Continues Japan’s largest labour federation, Rengo, reported: Average wage increase: 5.26% Base pay growth: 3.85% While slightly below last year’s initial 5.46%, the result still signals  sustained wage momentum , a key condition for Japan’s long-awaited  demand-driven inflation cycle . BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Firm The strong wage data supports the  Bank of Japan’s (BOJ)  path toward policy normalisation. Markets are pricing a  ~64% probability of a rate hike in April The BOJ has indicated it may act if  inflation trends remain intact despite external shocks This keeps Japan on track for a  gradual tightening cycle , after years of ultra-loose monetary policy. Inflation Dynamics Backed by Wage Growt...

Dubai’s rise as a global hub for the ultra-wealthy is now being tested, as  geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt capital flows, property demand, and investor confidence . Luxury Boom Built on Global Wealth Inflows In recent years, Dubai has seen a surge in  high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs)  relocating to the city, driving: Sharp increases in luxury property prices Growth in  tax revenues and financial activity Expansion into  private credit, tech, and global investments The broader Gulf region has leveraged its  oil wealth  to become a key player in global capital markets, with Dubai acting as a central hub. Iran War Introduces New Risk Layer The ongoing conflict has introduced a  direct geopolitical threat  to the region’s stability. Recent developments include: Drone strikes targeting residential areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Attacks on  energy infrastructure across the Gulf These events raise concerns over: Sa...

The long-standing relationship between Big Tech and the broader market has  broken down — and that may signal a new opportunity for investors . Correlation Breakdown Signals Market Shift For the first time in years, the  Magnificent Seven and the equal-weight S&P 500 have decoupled , with correlation turning  negative since late February . This shift suggests: Big Tech is no longer moving in sync with the broader market Market leadership could rotate back to tech stocks Historically, such divergence has preceded  strong outperformance from Big Tech .  Big Tech Lagged — But Now Looks Attractive Before the recent shift, Big Tech had underperformed: Magnificent Seven index fell  7.3% (Oct–Feb) Equal-weight S&P 500 rose  8.9% This was driven by concerns over: Heavy AI spending (capex concerns) Slowing momentum in key names like  Nvidia However, the pullback has reset valuations: Valuation dropped to  <25x earnings , below long-term ave...

Oil prices extended their rally, climbing to the  highest levels since 2022 , as escalating geopolitical tensions and a  US ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz  heightened fears of a prolonged global energy disruption. Oil Prices Spike Amid Escalation Risk Global benchmark oil surged: Brent crude rose above US$113 per barrel , marking a  fifth consecutive day of gains WTI crude approached US$100 per barrel Since the conflict began in late February,  Brent has rallied over 50% , reflecting severe concerns over  energy supply disruptions . Strait of Hormuz Crisis at the Core The latest surge follows a  48-hour ultimatum by US President Donald Trump , demanding Iran reopen the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical route for  ~20% of global oil supply . Iran has responded with threats to: Fully close the waterway Target  energy, infrastructure, and regional assets With maritime traffic largely halted, oil producers in the Gulf are being forced to...

Gold prices plunged sharply,  erasing all year-to-date gains , as escalating Middle East tensions triggered a surge in  inflation expectations and interest rate risks , prompting aggressive selling across precious metals. Gold Sees Fastest Selloff in Decades Gold extended its losses for a  ninth consecutive session , falling as much as  8.8% to near US$4,100 per ounce , before stabilising around  US$4,225 . This dramatic decline follows what was already the  worst weekly drop since 1983 , highlighting the intensity of the current selloff. Inflation Shock Drives Rate-Hike Expectations The key driver behind the decline is a sharp shift in macro expectations: Oil prices remain elevated , fuelling inflation concerns Markets are increasingly pricing in  higher-for-longer interest rates Central banks may  delay or reverse easing cycles Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold, as it  does not generate yield , pushing investors toward...

Singapore’s inflation eased in February, offering temporary relief before the  Middle East conflict triggered a surge in energy prices , which is expected to reshape the near-term outlook. Headline Inflation Moderates Singapore’s  consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% year-on-year in February , down from  1.4% in January , in line with expectations. However, underlying price pressures showed signs of firming: Core inflation rose to 1.4% YoY , up from  1.0% previously This marked the  highest level since December 2024 The data suggests that while headline inflation cooled,  core price momentum is gradually building . Cost Pressures Emerging Across Key Sectors Price increases were driven by several essential categories: Transport (+2.7%)  — reflecting higher mobility and cost pressures Food (+1.6%)  — indicating steady consumption demand Recreation & culture (+1.9%) Meanwhile, housing and utilities remained relatively subdued at  +0.3% , hel...

Emerging Asian markets came under heavy pressure on Monday as  persistent Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated , driving risk aversion and accelerating capital outflows across the region. Broad Selloff Across Emerging Asia The  MSCI Emerging Asia Index fell 3% , extending its March decline to  over 11% , putting it on track for its  worst monthly performance since 2022 . Key markets led the downturn: South Korea’s Kospi plunged up to 6.4% Taiwan equities dropped as much as 3.2% Singapore and Philippines markets fell 2%–3% The selloff reflects mounting concerns over  prolonged geopolitical risks and inflation pressures . Oil Above US$110 Fuels Risk Aversion Oil prices remained  above US$110 per barrel , reinforcing fears of: Imported inflation across Asia Higher production and transport costs Slower economic growth While some Iranian supply may return to markets, investors remain focused on the  risk of further disruptions to energy infrastruct...

Gold is heading for its  worst weekly performance in over four decades , as escalating Middle East tensions drive  higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and a stronger US dollar , eroding demand for the non-yielding asset. Sharp Selloff Driven by Rate Expectations Gold prices dropped sharply, with bullion falling  over 3% to around US$4,509 per ounce , marking an  eight-day losing streak . The key driver has been a shift in monetary expectations: Markets now see a  50% probability of a rate hike by October Expectations for  rate cuts have diminished significantly Higher interest rates reduce gold’s appeal, as it  does not generate yield , making it less attractive compared to bonds and cash. War Escalation Fuels Inflation and Dollar Strength The ongoing conflict in the Middle East — including potential  US ground troop deployment and increased military presence  — has pushed  energy prices higher , reinforcing inflation risks. As a resu...

Maybank Research has downgraded its outlook for Southeast Asia, warning that  rising energy prices and supply disruptions  linked to Middle East tensions are triggering a  stagflationary shock  across the region. Growth Forecasts Lowered Across ASEAN-6 The research house now expects  ASEAN-6 GDP growth at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 , down from previous forecasts of 4.8%. The biggest downgrades were seen in: Philippines and Vietnam (-0.4ppt) Thailand (-0.3ppt) The revisions reflect the growing impact of  higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions  on economic activity. Inflation Pressures Intensify At the same time, inflation forecasts have been revised upward: 2026 inflation: 2.7% (vs 2.2% previously) 2027 inflation: 2.7% (vs 2.5%) The largest inflation increases are expected in  Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia , driven by higher fuel and commodity prices. Monetary Policy Shift: Easing Cycle Disrupted The energy shock is expected...

New Zealand’s fiscal outlook has come under pressure after Fitch Ratings revised the country’s  credit rating outlook to “negative” , citing challenges in reducing government debt amid a weakening economic backdrop. Debt Concerns Drive Outlook Downgrade While Fitch maintained New Zealand’s  AA+ sovereign rating , it warned that  fiscal consolidation has been delayed , making meaningful debt reduction harder to achieve. Government debt is now projected to rise to  56% of GDP by fiscal 2027 , significantly higher than earlier expectations of around  36% . The agency noted that debt levels have increased sharply over the past six years due to  multiple economic shocks , raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. Growth Slows, Limiting Policy Flexibility Recent economic data shows  growth is weakening , reducing the country’s ability to absorb external shocks. GDP grew just 0.2% in Q4 Prior quarter revised down to  0.9%  (below expec...

US equities extended their decline, with the  S&P 500 falling to a six-month low , as escalating Middle East tensions heightened  inflation fears and interest rate uncertainty . Broad Selloff as War Enters Fourth Week Markets weakened sharply as the  US-Israel-Iran conflict showed no signs of easing , raising concerns of a prolonged geopolitical shock. S&P 500 Index  fell  1.51%  to 6,506 Nasdaq C omposite Index  dropped  2.01% Dow Jones Industrial Average  declined  0.96% The  Russell 2000  also slid  2.26% , now down about  10% from recent highs , signalling broader market weakness. Since the conflict began in late February, major indices have fallen  4%–7% , reflecting deteriorating sentiment. Inflation Concerns Drive Rate Expectations Higher Rising oil prices continue to push  inflation expectations upward , prompting markets to reassess monetary policy. Futures markets now suggest the  Fede...

KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia ended lower today due to late selling in selected heavyweights, particularly in the healthcare, utilities and financial services sectors and was also in sync with regional market weakness. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased 9.10 points or 0.53 per cent to 1,720.71 from yesterday’s close of 1,729.81. The market bellwether opened 6.52 points lower at 1,723.29, and fluctuated between 1,719.93 and 1,737.12 throughout the day. Market breadth was negative with losers beating gainers 707 to 442. A total of 486 counters were unchanged, 1,131 untraded and 11 suspended. Turnover increased to 3.36 billion units worth RM4.96 billion from yesterday’s 3.33 billion units worth RM4.27 billion.

Singapore equities showed  mixed performance on Thursday , with selective strength in industrial and telecom names, while broader weakness persisted amid global volatility. STI Movers: Defensive and Yield Plays Hold Up Among the  FTSE STI constituents , gainers were led by: Sembcorp Industries   (+0.98%)  – top performer, supported by energy-linked sentiment Genting Singapore   (+0.74%) Singtel   (+0.39%) OCBC Bank   (+0.23%) On the downside: DFIRG USD   (-5.11%)  led decliners Hongkong Land   (-4.17%) Jardine Matheson Holdings   (-3.79%) City Developments   (-3.40%) The divergence highlights  rotation into defensive and yield-generating stocks , while property-linked counters faced pressure. REITs: Selective Buying in Yield Plays The REIT sector saw mixed performance: Suntec REIT   (+4.29%)  – strongest performer, indicating renewed investor interest Prime US REIT   (-3.43%)  led losses CDL Hospitality...